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Inverted Yield Curve - Is this Time Different?

For quite some time now we have been highlighting that the yield curve is inverted. We brought this up because an inverted yield curve can be one of the most reliable forecasters of a recession, or at least an economic slowdown.

To review, when the yield on the 10 year bond rate is lower than the short term 90 day T-bill, we have an inverted yield curve. As a rule, the wider the negative spread of the yield curve, the more bearish the “forecast.” The negative yield spread is increasing. It broke to a new low Friday with the 10 year bond yield being 43 points below the 90 day T-bill.

Historically, inversions of the yield curve have proceeded many of the U.S. recessions. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as an accurate forecast of the turning points of the business cycle. In fact an inverted spread of the current - 43 points relates to a 40% chance of a recession occurring within the next 6 – 12 months.

In September 2000 just before the U.S. equity markets collapsed, most blue chip economists and money managers were telling us that “This time it is different.” If you recall, they specifically focused on the fact that the markets were close to setting new highs, so any talk of a recession was ridiculous. We were told that instead we were heading for a soft landing. Note that in 2000, none of these blue chip economists predicted or even considered that we would have a recession. But what happened – the economy slowed significantly and was in recession by March of 2001. The facts are the “This time was not different.”

We do not know if we are going to experience a recession. We do not know if the housing market will experience a hard or a soft landing. We do not know whether or not “this time will be different.” But as investors we plan to be prepared. Because the mainstream media isn’t worried doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be prepared for an economic slowdown or a recession.

The Fed understands that the inverted yield curve is warning of a possible recession. They will continue to watch the data closely. Bernanke will continue to straddle the teeter-totter balancing between inflation and deflation. If the inversion on the yield curve continues, the Fed will become anxious. They are publicly saying that inflation is their biggest worry, yet if the economy slows or a recession kicks in, they will be very concerned that the consumers will no longer consume.

If inflation is their biggest worry, they will look to raise rates. If a recession is their biggest worry, they will need to turn on the liquidity spigots again and look to lower rates. It is a dicey game to have to play. But while the experts are saying that all is good and the Dow is at a new high, we suspect that this time is no different and that we are in for an economic slowdown at best and a full recession at worst. If we are correct, then it makes sense for us to stay out of the equity markets at this time.

Martin Straith - editor of the Trendletter @ thetrendletter.com thetrendletter.com.


SEP IRAs - A Path to More Retirement Income?

A SEP IRA is a plan that may allow you to put away more tax deductible dollars for retirement. For employers, SEPs are a simple way to establish a retirement plan for employees without many of the restrictions that apply to other qualified plans and without the mounds of paperwork.

Here, however, we are going to talk about how a SEP IRA could allow you to save more for retirement if you have self-employment income outside of your job or have your own business. Business owners are both “employers” and “employees.” For this discussion, we will assume that you are the only employee.

Note: If you are involved in a business with partners or employees, the same percentage contribution is required for all employees who are over age 21, have worked in the business in at least three of the last five years and made at least $450 (2006). Other technicalities may apply.

The Rules

1. You can contribute up to 25% of your compensation, subject to a maximum. This maximum is indexed; for 2006 it was $44,000 and for 2007 $45,000.

2. Assuming the SEP IRA’s tax year is the calendar year, contributions can be made up until April 15th of the following year, when the tax return is due.

3. You can contribute up until you are 70 1/2, but not beyond.

4. Withdrawals before age 59 1/2 are subject to the 10% premature distribution penalty tax unless one of the exceptions apply.

5. You have to start taking the money out (RMDs) at age 70 1/2.

The Benefits

1. SEP IRAs are simple. Essentially SEPS are big IRAs. There is very little paperwork.

2. They are flexible. You can vary the amount you contribute each year from zero all the way up to the year’s maximum contribution limit.

3. The total contribution limit is indexed which allows more to be contributed each year.

4. Employer contributions are generally not subject to FICA (Social Security tax), FUTA (federal unemployment tax) or income tax withholding.

5. As an employee of your SEP IRA, you possibly can make deductible contributions as well. These contributions have the same contribution limits as traditional IRAs. For 2006 and 2007, this is $4,000. If you are age 50 or over, you can add another $1,000. However, if you make too much money, your contribution maximum is either reduced or eliminated.

6. You can be a participant in a qualified plan (for example, a 401(k)) at work and still be able to contribute to your SEP IRA based on your outside income. Again, this is a function of your income and subject to the phase out rules discussed below.

Phase-Out Rules

1. First, these rules apply if you are a participant in another qualified plan. Note that having a SEP IRA puts you in this category.

2. Your income and your tax filing status determine the phase-out. Technically, this is “modified adjusted gross income” (MAGI) which is adjusted gross income with certain adjustments. See your accountant.

3. If you file a joint tax return and have a MAGI of $75,000 or less (2006), you can make a full employee contribution: $4,000 or $5,000 if you are 50 or older. If your MAGI is over $85,000, no contribution can be made. A partial contribution formula determines the maximum permissible contribution for incomes between $75,000 and $85,000.

4. If you file a single tax return, you can make a full SEP IRA employee contribution if your MAGI is $50,000 (2006) or under and no contribution for incomes of $60,000 (2006) or more. Again, for incomes between these numbers, a formula determines a partial contribution limit.

5. If you are married and file a separate return, the phase-out starts at an income of zero. Adjusted gross income of $10,000 or more does not allow any contribution.

These benefits and rules of SEP IRAs are based on my understanding and cannot be used as tax advice. The proper plan will depend on your goals, income, tax filing status, and your participation in another qualified plan. It would be best to sit down with your accountant and financial planner and do the math on all your options.

Robert D. Cavanaugh, CLU is a 36-year financial and estate planning veteran and author of the free newsletter, “The Estate Preservation Advisor”. For cutting-edge, easy-to-understand financial planning resources and techniques to increase your income, reduce taxes and preserve your estate, go to theestatepreservationadvisor.com/rd/subscribe.htm theestatepreservationadvisor.com/rd/subscribe.htm


Achieving Your Financial Goals: A Secret to Success

Part I:
Do you have a goal to your financial success? Do you have a plan for reaching this goal? If you are like most people, you desire financial security and higher levels of financial success. The dream of financial freedom and a demonstration of business acumen are quite common as a precursor to reaching your ultimate vision, but how do you actually reach your objective? It all starts with a well conceived goal.

Have you ever worked on a major project like building a house, writing a book, creating a successful business venture, taking a extended trip, developing a larger community project or fund raiser, or created a large event (like a wedding, rock concert, class re-union, etc.)? Any of these projects can not reach success without a solid plan.

A “Dream” of wealth or financial success is different than a well thought through plan. Planning starts with goal setting. It requires that you spend the time necessary to gather information, outline the necessary steps to achieve the project, develop a workable timeline, acquire the resources, and take the steps to move down the path to your goal.

These are simple concepts. Why do so many people have dreams that are never fulfilled? What steps must you take to achieve your dreams? You can not plan without a viable goal. You can not succeed on a large, important goal without sustained action. You can not achieve success without commitment and focus. If you are not “driven,” can you accomplish your larger goals? Can learned attitudes or beliefs sabotage your success?

Part II:
Most people do not do the “work.” The work is goal setting, planning, gathering the necessary resources, and the focused follow through for their success. People want the benefits of financial success without committing to the real required work. Sometimes the required work includes the “work” on oneself to understand and then overcome ones own resistance to financial success. It is hard to attract money and financial success if you actually fear or loath wealth. Many people stand in their own way to achieving success. These people say that they want to succeed but do not believe that they will succeed. Many people who have not done the “work” will reach financial goals and then sabotage their long-term objectives because they are not really ready for success.

A necessary secret to success:
If you are serious about achieving your financial goals, you must get serious about dealing with your deep resistance to success.

You may require support and coaching. In some cases you may have to go further and get good therapy to get to the source of your negative attitudes or beliefs. If you have not reached your highest levels of productivity and success, then you may have to get “outside” perspective to overcome your barriers. If you think that you do not require extra support or coaching, and you want to make the same mistakes over and over, then do not make any changes. It will be more comfortable to do it the “old” way, but do not expect better results. If you really want to gain the success that you desire then it is time to “knuckle-down” and get to work. Be excited about the possibilities and as open as you can be to the new insights that will help to drive your success.

One resource for you to create some awareness about your possible sources of resistance and some new behaviors that you can adopt that will lead to financial success can be found in a book titled “Secrets of the Millionaire Mind, Mastering the Inner Game of Wealth” by T. Harv Eker. I learned a lot by reading this book. Eker claims that there are 17 behaviors that are common for financially successful people that can be missing in less successful people and by modeling these behaviors you can move more easily toward your financial goals. You may want to take action and review this type of information.

Along the way, remember to make time to take good care of yourself. Financial success means nothing if you have compromised your physical, emotional, and spiritual health.

L. John Mason, Ph.D. is the author of the best selling “Guide to Stress Reduction.” Since 1977, he has offered Executive Coaching and Training.

Please visit the Stress Education Center’s website at dstress.com dstress.com for articles, free ezine signup, and learn about the new telecourses that are available. If you would like information or a targeted proposal for training or coaching, please contact us at (707) 795-2228.

If you are looking to promote your training or coaching career, please investigate the Professional Stress Management Training and Certification Program for a secondary source of income or as career path.


Getting Your First Car Loan

One of the first big purchases many people make is an automobile. Of course, those just starting out in the world aren’t liable to have much credit history. So how exactly do you go about getting yourself a good car loan?

Well, if you can’t cough up the cash (and most of us can’t, if you’re considering a fairly new vehicle, that is), the smartest thing you can do is to prepare yourself early. Get ready to line up your credit at least a year before you’re ready for that auto loan.

This doesn’t mean run out and get several credit cards and start charging. It does mean establishing yourself with a good solid history of being a financially responsible adult. When you go in for a loan on a new or used vehicle, you should know what kind of credit history the dealers will be looking for. This isn’t to say that if you don’t have good history, you won’t get a car loan. There are plenty of lenders more than ready to take advantage of those with poor credit by not turning them down, but instead slapping them with huge finance charges and impossibly tiny monthly payments that will let them collect interest on you for years.

Don’t let it happen. Do some pre-planning.

If you don’t have a checking account, get one. Savings accounts are fine, but checking accounts require that you keep an eye on the balance and don’t bounce checks or overdraw the account, and that alone establishes some financial credibility. It also ensures a safe route for your auto payments, which you can have deducted straight from your bank account. Set up direct deposit of your paychecks with your employer if possible (it goes without saying that you must have a steady job), so that your bank records show a consistent flow of cash coming in every two weeks. Direct deposit also keeps the money out of your hands and safe in the bank, which leads to the other big point:
Save for your down payment!

Not only will a good down payment knock down the amount you’re required to finance on your new car; it will also make you look like a safer financial bet and will most likely result in a better financing plan. Those with at least a quarter of the purchase price in hand will be riding much more smoothly when it comes time to finance.

Finally, it might be a good idea to take out a small bank loan about a year in advance of your first car purchase. Make the loan small enough so that you know you won’t get into trouble trying to pay it back; and then, most importantly, pay it back. On time, with regular monthly installments.

Trust us: It’s important to make yourself look like a good financial investment for the car lenders. When it comes time to set up payments on that new set of wheels, you’ll be glad you did. Nobody wants to be paying off a car loan long after the car has gone to the junkyard.

Joseph Kenny is the webmaster of the loan information sites


Prepaid Credit Cards - Credit Cards for Bad Credit

A good credit history is an important part of survival in today’s world. Your credit history can affect getting an apartment, a home loan, car loan, insurance, and even a job. Yes they do look at your credit history whenever you apply for any of the above. It’s about responsibility and trust.

But wait a minute. Life isn’t always smooth sailing. Often times there are bumps in the road and these bumps can effect your credit. Illness and unemployment don’t always wait for the right moment to happen in our lives. They can often take a huge toll on families, not only emotionally but financially as well.

Just like it is important to have good credit, it’s almost impossible today to get by without some sort of credit card. The financial institutions realize this and that’s why they offer credit cards for people with bad credit. There are secured and unsecured credit card offers available.

Some people may want the unsecured credit card. They should be aware, however, that if they’re not one to pay off the balance in full each month, there’s a hefty interest rate on those cards. The financial institution is taking a risk because of your poor credit history, no matter what the reason.

An alternate solution is to get a prepaid credit card. This is where you deposit the funds before you use the card, which is why they call this a secured credit card. It works just like a credit card and can be used the same way as a regular card, anywhere they accept that type of credit card. Your funds are also available at any ATM.

Prepaid credit cards aren’t just for people with bad credit, however. Some people don’t want to pay later as with regular credit cards. They want to pay as they go. That’s where the prepaid credit card comes in for the regular consumer.

The advantage of a prepaid credit card is you don’t need to carry a lot of cash. You can also use the card online just like any other credit card. Last but not least, you can control your spending as you are limited to the amount on deposit.

Prepaid credit cards are advantageous in more ways than one. They look like a regular credit card. They are accepted just like a regular credit card. But the difference is, you’re in control of your own finances.

About the Author: Bradley Carson is the editor of Apply Online For A Credit Card at cards-king.com cards-king.com which is a website created to provide concise information about credit cards and credit card offers from premier financial institutions.


Pay Down Debt Now - Invest in Your Future

“If your paying 17% interest rates, and you can pay them off, its just like making a 17% return on that money, because you will no longer lose it”

Financial problems are not easy to come to terms with. Often we ignore them because we do not know how to correct them. Most people do not realize that they are financial trouble until they are severely in debt. If you are struggling to meet your monthly payments, if you are borrowing from one credit card to pay another, or if one or more of your credit cards are in collection – it’s time to take control of your expenses.

Even for folks who are not in debt, below are some tips to improve your financial situation and invest in your future. Having self control can be a tricky task but the time and effort spent on cleaning up your debt situation is well worth it.

Budget – Do you cringe at the thought to of a budget? Try to think of it as a ’spending’ plan and remember it will help improve your financial stability. A great place to start is to list all your income and then list expenses – mortgage or rent payments, auto loan, and utilities. These expenses do not vary from month to month and are considered fixed.

Next list your expenses that do vary – entertainment, transportation, and gas. The goal is to plan a way in which all your expenses are being paid, then cut luxury spending and pay down credit card debt. Making the budget is the easy part, sticking to it is much more difficult. Be strong and think about your future.

Contact - If you are behind on credit card payments contact your creditors. Most credit card companies are willing to work with you and schedule payments that fit your budget. Turning over your account to a debt collector costs the company money and they would prefer to deal directly with you. This is a good tip for loan and mortgage payments. Mortgage companies do not want you to lose your house.

Contact them and explain your current situation to set up a new payment plan.
Start with Highest Interest Loans – Make a list all of your debts and their associated interest payments. List them from highest interest to lowest. Find your highest interest rate debt and begin paying more then your monthly minimum payment for that credit card. Eliminating your highest interest debt, as quickly as possible, saves you money. Paying down credit card debt is an investment.

If you have a credit card debt with an interest rate of 17%, if you pay that off quick, you are actually making a return of 17%. You may also want to consider transferring balances to credit cards that have a lower interest rate. This can dramatically help control debt.

Paying down your debt is your first step to financial stability. Once you pay down your debt, you will be able to devote that money to your future financial investments.

Visit the global-investment-institute.com/glossary/terms.php Global Investment Institute and signup for our free global-investment-institute.com Investing For Beginners E-Course at Global-Investment-Institute.com www.Global-Investment-Institute.com Investment webmasters or publishers, please feel free to use this article provided this reference is included and all links remain active.


Take a Debt Consolidation Loan and Manage All Your Debts

Debt consolidation loans put an end to all your debt worries. Your multiple payments of loans are wrapped up into one single payment. Debt consolidation loan is a great relief for all those, surrounded by sea of debts.

Debt consolidation loan is a boon for people who are tired of making payments to several creditors at a time. It becomes very painful when we don’t find a solution to overcome our debts issues. Debt consolidation loan is meant to serve such purposes only. It’s not a difficult task to get rid of all those annoying creditors, who have made your life stressful.

With debt consolidation loan your several loan payments are summed up in to one. You will have a single creditor to whom you have to make repayments. Earlier it was hard to manage one’s debts, there were hardly any lenders who wanted to help them out. But, since debt consolidation loan has come into picture, it has certainly helped thousands of people.

Besides consolidating your previous debts,


Get Your Business Latched with Secured Business Loan

Investment of capital is the input and profit is the output…the process is called a business venture. It requires input in form of capital at every step to run smoothly. Generally, you use the money out of profit to invest as capital but sometimes due to some unexpected happening you may face shortfall of money to invest as capital. You can’t put such requirements on hold as this can affect your business and business ideas adversely. Secured business loan is once such form of financing you can rely on for business related financial requirements.

Secured business loans are latched by the security offered by the borrower as collateral. This security generally, is his home, real estate or any other valuable asset. The title of the collateral is transferred to the loan lender at the time of loan agreement. One thing which you need to take care off is to make the repayments on time as in case on any default, the lender can enforce his right regarding the repossession of the collateral, and you might lose your property.

Being secured, these loans gets you bigger sums between ₤50000 to ₤1000000 which can further extend up to two million if circumstances demands it. The interest rate is low making repayments lighter to pay. The repayment period for secured business loans varies between 3 to 30 years depending on the amount borrowed.

Secured business serves you in following purpose:

• Starting a new business venture

• Expanding the existing venture

• Buying office space, machinery and equipments

• Purchasing stationary, furniture, computers etc

• Renovation of office for improvement in working conditions

• Purchasing raw material and paying the salaries, other working capital requirements

• Miscellaneous requirements

However, secured business loans can also be used for consolidation of existing debts in your business. Yes, you can pay off all your existing debts and liabilities with the help of such loans. This positively adds to your credit score. Interest payable on a secured business loan is tax free. Secured business loans are also available to people with bad credit score including defaulters, arrears, CCJ’s and IVA’s, bankrupts etc.

For searching and applying for a secured business loans you can use the internet option. There are dozens of online websites with numerous free loan quotes and comparison tools. You can select the loan package according to are requirement and fill the application form for the same. In case you are applying for a new business, you need to convince lender that your business will be successful enough to repay the loan amount. In case of existing business, details such as business name and address, nature of the business, length of ownership and business profile should be mentioned in the application form. You can see yourself touching heights of success with a secured business loan.

Tim Kelly is an expert in finance having completed her LLM in Finance (Master of Laws in Finance)
from Institute for Law and Finance at Frankfurt University. She is currently working with commercialSecuredLoan as a financial advisor. To find


Goals, Goals & More Goals

One important way to help improve your wealth image and bring you closer to achieving a healthy wealth image is to make some decisions about where you want to be wealth wise and begin setting goals toward that end. It is very important to set a long term goal then break it down to smaller goals that you can achieve over a year, month, week and even daily. Writing down even the small, seemingly unimportant tasks will help you because when you can cross off something after you have achieved it does give a great sense of accomplishment and help spur you on to the next goal. Write them down and tape them where you will see them so you can remember to look at them. Keep them before your eyes.

Okay, answer this: What wealth improvement tape or CD have you listened to today? Don’t forget…it is very important to put things in that will help. I keep CD’s in may car so that as I’m driving around I’m improving my inner self. Also, it is great to have a visual goal. For instance: today is Sunday and that’s when there are open houses galore. After church I always get the Sunday paper and after lunch I scour the real estate section circling the open houses. I then write them down in order of location and from 2-5pm I go looking. Looking at these open houses, which are normally the more expensive houses, is building in me the idea that this is normal and that I will have a house like this. I’m househunting, in case you were wondering. So the more I put my eyes to something nicer and more expensive, the more my expectation for it will grow. So the more you listen to improvement tapes or CD’s the more your mind and inner self will change to it.

Have you crossed off any short term goals? Are you getting any closer to your long term goals? Don’t forget, accomplishing those short term goals will keep you focused to get to the end of your journey. By the way, we should probably discuss that…the end of your journey. What are you trying to accomplish and why? The why is very important.

We know that without a big enough why, many of you will never take your first steps down the road to success and even if you do begin, when you encounter the first obstacle you might turn back if you don’t have a strong enough why. So having a strong why not only gives you the courage, strength and belief to begin your journey, it also gives you the perseverance and persistence to succeed. So you must have an unstoppable why that resonates with your authentic self and that is fed and nurtured everyday. This is the most important foundation to your success.

Most successful people will tell you that with a strong enough why, figuring out how becomes easy. It also helps if you lend yourself toward listening and reading things that will help you in the right direction. At the moment I’m working to keep myself motivated while I’m endeavoring to be successful at a somewhat new business. I need to stay focused. The other day I happened to hear someone talking about Anthony Robbins so I looked him up in our library catalog. Sure enough, a set of his CD’s was available and I’ve begun listening to him. There is something about listening to motivational tapes that will spur you on and even give you ideas. If you can keep the positive coming in and keep the negative totally out, just think how far you can go. I urge you to begin thinking about your why and write it down TODAY!

Claudia Givens

7khomebusiness.net/4 7khomebusiness.net/4

I’m self employed and love the time freedom and choices it affords me. I am a mother of two children (so to speak), my daughter is 34 and my son just turned 18 and attends college (studying business for entrepreneurs). I love networking with other people to hear what others are doing with their lives. I love to travel and can’t wait to begin that part of my life again. My business is being an MMCII ProRep with Advantage Conferences, LLC-Home of the Millionaire Mindset Conferences.

I enjoy blogging as Millionaie Mentor at: christian-millionaire-mentoring.blogspot.com/ christian-millionaire-mentoring.blogspot.com/
I’m also the founder/editor of the online magazine for women: Esther’s Legacy. I’m one of those people that believes life is getting better the older I get.


Forex Trading - Financial Freedom Through Forex (Part 1)

Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. You won’t get rich fast and easy through forex trading. Yes, you can do well, but you’re going to have to plan and work you plan. Ready?

The very first thing you need to do is create a plan. To create this plan you’re going to need some data. For example:

What method or system are you going to be trading?
How well does it do in the market?
What can you expect from it?
How much are going to initially invest?
How much will you be able to continually invest?

Mostly likely you don’t have the answers to any of these questions. Unfortunately, no one is going to hold your hand. You’re going to have to roll up your sleeves and do the work yourself. I know that’s a drag, but it’s the way the real world works.

So what if you don’t know anything about methods or systems or testing them? Find out! MetaTrader will let you construct and test trading systems for free. There are tutorials on the web as to how to use it. There are even people who will program a trading method for you as well.

After you have done that research, you now know the answer to the first three questions. Good. Now you need to address your finances. How much can you invest? More importantly, how much can you continue to invest?

You see, there isn’t a legitimate system that will earn 5000% return on investment. So, your initial investment isn’t going to make you rich. You’ll need to continue to invest in your fund on a regular basis.

Now it’s time to bring this plan to life . . . see you in part 2.

Do you want to learn more about how I trade? I have just completed my brand new guide, “Forex Trading - What Finally Worked For Me”.

Download it free here: winningforextrading.com/html/fx.html Forex Trading

Nathan Pennington is a forex trader and the author of winningforextrading.com Winning Forex Trading -THE Definitive Guide